Andrew Ritchie
New Zealand farmers are already taking steps to protect production as a strengthening El Niño weather pattern raises the prospect of drier conditions this summer.
El Niño is now firmly established, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Both oceanic and atmospheric indices reflect values consistent with a strong El Niño, with further intensification likely during spring.
Sea surface temperatures off southern New South Wales and the Tasmanian coast were about 2C to 3C above average as of 9 August. Measurements off the Ecuadorian coast showed temperatures as high as 8C above normal.
Meteorologist Phil Duncan says the ingredients are there for heat records, but cautions that weather patterns can still change.
He says the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), a low-frequency mode of atmospheric variability that influences where winds and weather systems originate, is currently positioned closer to Antarctica. This reduces the likelihood of extreme heat affecting New Zealand.
If the SAM shifts further north, New Zealand would be more exposed to hot air moving across from the deserts of central Australia.
Osgro Seed Services’ Jeremy Oswald says farmers are well aware of the risks associated with El Niño and are already planning ahead.
Many have purchased supplementary feed before demand pushes prices higher. Others are spraying out paddocks early in preparation for forage crops such as summer rape.
Cereal crops including oats and barley are another option. Within 80 to 90 days, those crops can be grazed or allowed to mature before being harvested as baleage.
Tempello farmer David Grigg already has a drought strategy in place should conditions deteriorate.
“The early decisions are the best,” says David.
He and wife Joanna farm a hill country property stretching from the Wairau Valley into the Awatere Valley and carrying 9,500 stock units. David closely monitors soil temperature and soil moisture levels. North-facing paddocks are being grazed first, taking advantage of subterranean clover, which provides high-quality feed for lactating livestock before reseeding itself ahead of future rainfall. Southern-facing country will be held in reserve for later if drought conditions take hold. Selling trading stock early allows David to reduce stocking numbers to 6,000 if required.
If farmers do need to destock, David recommends discussing the Income Equalisation Scheme with their accountant, as two years’ worth of income could potentially fall within a single financial year.
Lower, shaded country will be sown in Raphno, a cross between rape and kale. Previous seasons have shown the crop can withstand multiple grazings.
Supplementary feed has also been secured, with barley scheduled for delivery in January.
David says one of the biggest lessons came during the drought of 1997-98, when poor water quality left 600ha unable to be grazed because stock relied on dams that quickly turned into muddy holes.
Since then, a new water source has been developed and a gravity-fed system installed to supply troughs across the farm.
“We learnt an awful lot from that first experience,” says David, “so I think we are as well prepared as we can be this time round.”
